What exactly do the odds in sports betting say?
There is no sports bet without odds, everyone knows that – but what exactly makes the odds end up the way they do? How to calculate a quota? And above all: What does the odds mean for your own bet? Does it perhaps give an indication of who or what is best to bet on? Or does it just indicate the risk and potential reward without being a guide? All these questions should now be answered here.
What do sports betting odds depend on?
When it comes to sports betting, the odds always reflect in some way the probability of a particular event occurring. The less likely something is, the higher the odds of it happening. In this case, the odds are calculated based on a fair rate that only takes into account the probability of winning. In addition to the probability, the bookmaker’s profit margin and the German betting tax of 5% are also included in the odds. Therefore, the odds in Germany are always slightly worse than elsewhere, which means lower profits for the players. Because of this, many gamblers prefer to place their bets with overseas operators who accept a lower profit margin and may also be able to avoid betting tax.
Who sets the betting odds?
Not every bookmaker calculates the odds for their bets themselves. Some large providers on the Internet do this. B. at www.wettProvider-experiences.com, and also large physical providers, e.g. B. on racetracks, but also many smaller providers buy the current odds from larger providers. The odds themselves are either calculated by the PC using complicated algorithms, or a professional bookmaker for sports betting determines an ideal odd.
How are sports betting odds calculated?
The odds for sports betting are always determined in a multi-stage process. First, the sporting event is analyzed. A fair quota is then determined, which becomes the real quota by including further costs. In practice, however, the odds are constantly changing when players’ stakes are also taken into account.
Step: Analysis of the sporting event
On the way to a sports betting odds, the first step is always a sober analysis of the sporting event. Statistics on similar events in the past are used, but also, for example, the form of the athletes on the day is taken into account. In addition, countless other details can also be included in the analysis. Ultimately, of course, it helps the bookmaker, who is supposed to determine a quota, a lot if he can access as much relevant data as possible. At the end of this analysis, the bookmaker makes hypotheses about the probability of which event will occur. For example, in a soccer game, he might conclude that Team A has a 45% chance of winning, Team B has a 20% chance of winning, and the game has a 35% chance of ending in a draw.
Step: Determining the fair odds
The bookmaker can now easily derive fair odds from the probabilities of certain outcomes. To do this, he divides 100 by the probability of a certain event occurring. In the above example, the odds for Team A to win would be 2.22. The odds for a win for Team B would be 5 and the odds for a draw would be 2.86.
Step: Calculation of a real rate
However, a fair odd is not enough – the bookmaker does not make a profit here and cannot pay the betting tax. In order to fulfill these two purposes, the bookmaker calculates a real odds. To do this, he first considers what proportion of the stake he would like to post as profit. Let’s assume that the profit should be three percent. If you add the betting tax of five percent and subtract the sum of both taxes from 1, the result is that the players can be paid out 92 percent of their winnings.
In order to price this directly for the customers, the bookmaker now multiplies the fair odds by the share for the players. Team A’s win odds will now change from 2.22 to 2.04 and Team B’s win odds will drop from 5 to 4.6. Also, the draw odds drop from 2.86 to 2.63.
Watch out!
However, you have to be careful with the real odds, because not all providers include the betting tax directly. A better rate at first glance can ultimately bring less profit than an apparently worse rate. However, you can find out more about the calculation of the real odds and the inclusion of the betting tax in the general terms and conditions or on a special explanatory page of the bookmaker.
Constant adjustment of quotas
In reality, the odds for the various betting events are constantly being adjusted. This happens depending on how many players bet how much money on a certain outcome. The odds are adjusted in the interest of the bookmaker in such a way that he can ultimately book a profit with the highest possible probability. However, this is not always possible, so it can happen that a bookmaker has to accept losses. Despite the dynamic adjustment of odds, it is still important for the bookmaker to maintain the relationship between the various odds for the outcome of an event.
differences between the odds
Different bookmakers also offer different odds to their customers – even if it’s the same event. This may be because they rate the event differently, but it could also be because they simply set different profit margins. For customers, the small differences between the odds of the various betting providers may initially only be of little interest. However, even with a single bet, this can make a big difference in the possible winnings, and over a longer period of time, big differences also occur.
An example calculation for a combination bet can make this clearer. If you bet 100 euros each with two bookmakers, but one offers odds of 1.96 and the other offers odds of 1.94, the differences are immediately larger. If you guess correctly, you will ultimately receive a profit of 2892.55 euros from the bookmaker with odds of 1.96, while the bookmaker with odds of 1.94 can only pay out a profit of 2747.95 euros. A small difference in the second decimal place reduces the profit by almost 150 euros.
The importance of odds
Anyone who has already dealt with sports betting a little will quickly realize that they have a very decisive influence on the success of betting. While the bets don’t affect whether you end up winning or not, they do affect how much you end up winning. Especially if you bet more frequently or with larger sums, the profit often melts noticeably due to bad odds.
Therefore, it is definitely worthwhile to find out about the best odds from various portals. However, it is not necessarily the case that a bookmaker who once has the best odds on offer can always offer them. Because the odds change with every sporting event, and with different assessments and different betting behavior of the users, they can deviate significantly under certain circumstances. The best thing to do for each bet you want to place is to find the provider that is offering the customers the best odds in that case.